Deciphering the "+" Symbol in Betting: A Comprehensive Guide

In the realm of sports betting, the "+" symbol holds significant importance. It represents the vigorish, also known as the overround or juice, which is the profit margin built into a bet by the sportsbook. Understanding the "+" symbol and its implications is crucial for bettors seeking to maximize their chances of success.

What Does "+" Mean in Betting?

The "+" symbol in betting stands for overround, which refers to the percentage by which the total amount wagered on all possible outcomes of a particular event exceeds 100%. For instance, if a sportsbook offers odds of -110 on two outcomes, the total overround is calculated as follows:

Overround = (1 / (Decimal Odds of Outcome 1) + 1 / (Decimal Odds of Outcome 2)) - 1
Overround = (1 / -110 + 1 / -110) - 1 = 4.55%

In this example, the overround is 4.55%, indicating that the sportsbook expects to make a profit of 4.55% on this particular event over the long run.

Understanding the Importance of the Overround

The overround is a fundamental concept in betting because it determines the expected return of a bettor. The higher the overround, the lower the expected return for the bettor.

For example, if a sportsbook offers odds of -110 on two outcomes with an overround of 4.55%, the expected return for a bettor who wagers $100 on each outcome is:

Expected Return = (1 / (Decimal Odds of Outcome 1) / 2) * (1 - Overround) + (1 / (Decimal Odds of Outcome 2) / 2) * (1 - Overround)
Expected Return = (1 / -110 / 2) * (1 - 0.0455) + (1 / -110 / 2) * (1 - 0.0455) = $95.45

As you can see, even if the bettor correctly predicts one of the two outcomes, they can expect to lose $4.55 on average due to the overround.

How to Use Overround to Your Advantage

While the overround is an unavoidable factor in betting, there are strategies bettors can employ to minimize its impact:

• Shop for the best odds: Different sportsbooks offer varying odds on the same events, so it pays to compare odds from multiple sources before placing a bet. By selecting the sportsbook with the lowest overround, you can increase your expected return.
• Focus on value bets: Value bets are bets where the implied probability of an outcome is higher than the probability assigned by the sportsbooks. By identifying and betting on value bets, you can overcome the overround and potentially profit over the long run.
• Manage your bankroll wisely: The overround is a slow and steady drain on a bettor's bankroll. It is crucial to manage your bankroll carefully, setting aside a specific amount of money for betting and sticking to it.

Real-Life Stories on the Impact of Overround

STORY 1:

In 2018, a sportsbook named Betfair offered odds of -120 on the Lakers to win the NBA championship. At the beginning of the season, the Lakers were considered a strong contender with a 25% implied probability of winning the title.

However, as injuries mounted throughout the season, the Lakers' chances of winning decreased significantly. By the time the playoffs started, their implied probability had dropped to 10%. Despite this, bettors continued to place bets on the Lakers due to their brand recognition and star power.

As a result, the overround on the Lakers to win the championship increased to 6.5%. This meant that even if the Lakers had won the championship, the average bettor would have lost money due to the high overround.

LESSON: Do not let emotions or biases influence your betting decisions. Always consider the implied probability of an outcome and the overround before placing a bet.

STORY 2:

In 2021, a European sportsbook named Pinnacle Sports offered odds of -105 on both Real Madrid and Manchester City to win the UEFA Champions League. At the time, Real Madrid was considered a slight favorite with a 51% implied probability of winning.

However, as the tournament progressed, Real Madrid faced increasingly tough opposition. By the time they reached the final, their implied probability had dropped to 45%.

Despite the lower implied probability, Real Madrid went on to win the championship. Bettors who had placed bets on Real Madrid at the start of the tournament at odds of -105 benefited from the low overround and made a profit.

LESSON: Value bets can be found by identifying events where the implied probability of an outcome is higher than the probability assigned by the sportsbook.

STORY 3:

A professional bettor named Bob manages a bankroll of $10,000. Over time, he places numerous bets with an average overround of 5%.

While Bob may win or lose individual bets, the overround slowly eats away at his bankroll. Over the course of a year, Bob can expect to lose approximately $500 due to the overround.

LESSON: Proper bankroll management is essential in betting. Set aside a specific amount of money for betting and stick to it. Avoid chasing losses or betting more than you can afford to lose.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q1: What is the difference between the overround and the house edge?
A1: The overround is the percentage by which the total amount wagered on all possible outcomes of an event exceeds 100%, while the house edge is the percentage advantage the sportsbook has over the bettor on a specific bet.

Q2: How can I calculate the overround of a bet?
A2: Use the following formula: Overround = (1 / (Decimal Odds of Outcome 1) + 1 / (Decimal Odds of Outcome 2)) - 1

Q3: What is a value bet?
A3: A value bet is a bet where the implied probability of an outcome is higher than the probability assigned by the sportsbook.

Q4: How can I find value bets?
A4: Use statistical analysis and research to assess the implied probability of outcomes and compare them to the odds offered by the sportsbook.

Q5: Is it possible to beat the overround?
A5: While it is challenging, it is possible to beat the overround over the long run by identifying and betting on value bets, shopping for the best odds, and managing your bankroll wisely.

Q6: What is the average overround across different sports?
A6: According to a study by the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, the average overround for major sports is as follows:

Table 1: Average Overround by Sport

Table 2: Overround by Sportsbook

Table 3: Overround on Different Bet Types

Call to Action

By understanding the "+" symbol in betting and the concept of the overround, you can become a more informed and successful bettor. Remember to shop for the best odds, focus on value bets, manage your bankroll wisely, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.